Sunday, January 16, 2011

EBRD policies or the strengthening of the euro does not help

 Yesterday the price of gold continues lower, dragged down by sharply lower oil prices, the U.S. disc Yao City, dropping as 807.00, after the market opened this morning, the Asia-Pacific plate, the gold price shocks temporarily stabilized at around 810 finishing. Meanwhile, the non-US currency price of gold also significantly taking the previous day's gains. transaction data show that the total open interest on Tuesday CMX gold the day before, been able to temporarily maintain the level, but still declined over the same period last week, for weeks the CFTC position reports to increase the potential of open positions will be interrupted. In addition, CMX 4467 ounces of gold inventory reduction, and concern is the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR inventory increase over the previous trading day from 3.06 to 790.66 tons in the record high, or implied bargain hunting intervention.
8:45 tonight, the European Central Bank rate decision will be announced, the market is expected to cut interest rates 50 basis points. the last meeting on post-meeting statement, Trichet has no intention to convey to the world will continue to cut interest rates, giving rise to a strong euro, but with the worsening economic data, not only voice rising interest rates, and Trichet himself has expressed possible interest rate cut. taking into account the EBRD has supported the market's modest expectations for policy Therefore, the basic interest rate cuts scheduled night, but this is also the opportunity to stabilize the euro could be the only solution, if the rate cut, then the lead market concerns about economic deterioration in Europe, and cut more than expected, reflecting the economic downturn have emerged , and the European Bank's monetary policy is wrong early.
disk indicators show that the daily indicators have weakened, CR, MMV, DKX full access to vulnerable forms, pre-rally has come to an end stage Zoudie pattern will continue, Short-term indicators of short-term fixed period remaining counter, may be. ENV prompt and effective downside has been released to 800, and the daily rate of increase will be $ 7. In view of indicators or 4 to 6 hours into the oversold in the near , 800 can be triggered near or long technical cover, 800 reasons to start a wave of shock near the finish, but the pressure in the closing of the gold under the constraints, the maintenance of both long and short of time to be accepted. Therefore, one can continue to hold air 800 temporarily below the desirability of continuing to sell into, but short-term intervention in the vicinity of more than 800 single also face great risk, who may wish to wait for care opportunities under 790.
support at :807-799-786
resistance bit :815-823-831
Chart 1: CMX gold positions and transaction data (unit: port = 100 ounces, red for New Year contract)
Exhibit 2: Recent Street tracks gold shares Gold inventory change (red line of gold per share, NAV close to 0.1 ounces, the blue line for the total tonnage of gold stocks)
purely personal point of view of the comments, please reference the caution. market risk and unpredictable, look carefully into the market, and reasonable control positions strictly a stop, maintain a good investment mentality, do not blindly chase sell. unpredictable shock incident, so once again drawn attention to market risk.

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