I do not believe that the stock market technical analysis methods, but the trends behind the stock market must correspond to the fundamental factors, some of the major stock market history, combined with its technical form of fundamental factors behind the analysis may make some judgments on our analysis of the stock market Some future trends to help.
similar to last year in July to the current index is the typical triangular form of the head shape. Generally speaking, the head shape is a big market in the game a long time after the formation of repeated, once a breakthrough may mean the formation of a new trend. 20-year history of the stock market there have been three times in the head and gradually reduce the adjustment patterns in the formation of these three trends, each case is very representative, may wish to make one by one some analysis.
1993 head shape was the result of a breakthrough to the next, taking a big bear market, the most important reason is that monetary tightening. The stock market started to decline in 1993, had gone through before the bull market in a short period of time is the end of 1992 to early 1993, from 17 November 1992 starting 386 points to 16 February 1993 of the 1558 points, only 3 months, the market rose as high as 303% (need to add is that May 1992 there have been short the stock market to rise, also has a relationship with the southern tour speech, May 21, 1992 Shanghai suddenly full liberalization of stock, the market directly Tiaokonggaokai at 1260.32 points, up 104.27 increase over the previous day %. only 3 days later and climb to the top 1420 points. subsequently fell sharply. The ups and downs caused mainly by the change in trading system, can be ignored.) Deng Xiaoping's southern tour in 1992 because of speech, there go all over the country fast on the boom, credit and currency soared dramatically in a few months. to the second half of 1993, prices began to rise rapidly, the CPI in 1994 rose to more than 20%, inflation situation worse. At that time, Deputy Prime Minister Zhu Rongji in command moving macro-control, the primary means of controlling the was only compressed to the normal range. This shows the currency and credit put out easy, take it back is very difficult.
contraction of credit and money in the process inevitably hurt the stock market, which is several years away in 1993 bear market The main reason the city. Meanwhile, the Government has had a measure to rescue the market, time is August 1994, the Government launched the maintain the pattern of a bear market, from the bottom of the head shape continued to decline around 1000 to 350 points.
the current bear market on Chinese stock market has a lot of reference on the stock market is facing .2010 monetary policy environment in 1993 There are many similarities, the basic trend of monetary tightening. Of course, the macroeconomic situation in 2010 and 1993 there are great differences, mainly in the following two aspects:
First, the pressure of price rise is not so much in 1993. China also is in short supply in 1993, economy, increasing direct the performance of the currency in the general price increases on consumer goods. And in 2010 China has been the era of surplus goods, money does not necessarily increase the performance for the price increases, therefore, money the urgency of tightening than in 1993 and 1994. The current main problem is that soaring housing prices, if the way through the current (mainly by administrative means) can not stop the trend of housing prices, then the intensity of monetary tightening is bound to strengthen the , it is faster on the stock market decline.
Second, the financial environment is not the same Back in 1993, China is still in the era of shortage of funds, the performance of the investment rate greater than the savings rate, interest rates high, then one-year deposit rate is 10.98%, and a store of value supplement. and the 2010 savings rate of China's financial status quo is greater than the investment rate, the capital has a surplus of low interest rates.
but if you look at the price and the interest rate level synthesis , 2010, 1993, China and the Chinese have a similar place, the actual interest rates are negative. In any case, after the stock market fundamentals in 1993 and 2010 the situation is more and more common, the stock market after 1993 Investors run the current trend is worth attention.
say the stock market in 1999 before the year 1999 up to May 1, more than a year, the stock market out of the head shape, but in mid-May, when the index break down when faced with the government adopted a series of measures prop the market in more than a month rose to 1756 points from 1047 points, followed by adjustments in 2001 has risen to 2245 points. This is the famous 5.19 Quotes. was the reason why the Government to prop up the market to get rid of internal and external problems, internal problems is the allows the market to finance state-owned enterprises to make state-owned enterprises out of difficulties, and the stock market rose after the birth could use the power, including the (Guangxia financial fraud case, the East electronic financial fraud case, funds are all shady product of that era), can be described without their utmost.
Because of this, so that the securities company into a highly leveraged risk in. at the time securities firms generally take misappropriation of clients funds or lending the way of high interest rates Zuozhuang stocks, as long as prices stop rising, securities companies will be heavy losses, which is a typical The author in 2009 some of the balance sheet recession in the analysis). In short, the so-called balance sheet-type recession is a country or a region of the total business or personal assets and liabilities not reduced shrink themselves in financial difficulties and a kinds of phenomena. When a group of businesses or individuals in society's balance sheet problems, even if these companies or individuals the normal production activities, but its cash flow must first be used to repay debt, inability to expand the debt and expand production scale, the market will Therefore, the expansion of the power lost. At this point, no matter how the central bank to lower interest rates, corporate debt is also no intention to expand the scale of monetary policy will fail. This economist John Maynard Keynes called > balance sheet is a statement of the recession, the macroeconomic model of a phenomenon or state of the theory of hypothesis, I believe that the hypothesis of the theory used to analyze the stock market and real estate market was also useful. When the stock market investors (especially the main investors) of the assets After the destruction of the balance sheet, the market will lose its power to attract incremental funding, will fall into a bear market.
2001 年 to 2005, the securities company is the main market, when the main balance sheet into a common plight , the stock market's market will regain vitality.
2001 至 2005 is the strongest economic performance in China 5 years, economists typically describe the ideal m of low inflation, high growth, while the stock market is out of the bear market, this lesson is worth serious consideration. This process tells us that, by artificially stimulating higher economic growth or stimulate the stock market will leave sequelae. in particular through the expansion of credit to stimulate the economy or the stock market extremely dangerous practice, it is prone to ; balance sheet type of recession blowout process in the end how much money into the stock and property markets? in the August 2009 stock market crash, we seem to see some signs of credit funds, fled in panic, but the nature of human greed, there are many decisions a certain credit funds left in the stock market, these funds will be the future of the stock market scourge.
in the financial markets, fear is excessive leverage. with their own funds to buy financial products will not create systemic risk, If you put too much leverage, once the market to reverse the risk of the outbreak of the system, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis nature of the same. Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission has said that to speculation Similarly, should the main tone is tight, therefore, difficult to have a good stock market performance.
2, China will face in the near future, the risk of the real estate bubble burst, it is likely once again into the balance sheet recession. If 2001-2005 is only securities company into a recession in the balance sheet, then, the decline in real estate prices are related to the broader, including not only individual investors, businesses, including local government.
3, from the stock market itself is a huge challenge .2010 circulation and several trillion in stock market value of flow required, although most of them do not really flow, but need cash in the amount of money can be ignored, especially in the stock price go bears, these cash funds often become the last straw that breaks the camel.
the stock market's future is always unknown, history only as a reference.
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